The Golden State Warriors three-point heavy 134-120 Tuesday night win over the Los Angeles Lakers was critical for many reasons. It was a positive data point as the Dubs try to prove that they can compete on the biggest stage this year. It was a confidence-building road victory against a team they’re likely to face in the Play-In Tournament. And it inched the Warriors closer to making a push up the standings.
The night ended the way it began, with the Warriors occupying the 10th seed, the Lakers the ninth seed, and the Sacramento Kings the eighth seed. But thanks to Golden State simultaneously putting a notch in their win column and in the Lakers’ loss column, and the Oklahoma City Thunder overcoming a 19-point halftime deficit to beat the Kings, the Warriors had a damn good day in the standings.
So let’s break down where they stand as we head towards the final games of the season. But first, a reminder about how the Play-In Tournament — which the Dubs have already clinched a spot in — works. The seventh seed, which is now the Phoenix Suns after they swapped places with the New Orleans Pelicans, hosts the eighth seed, with the winner advancing to the playoffs. Meanwhile, the ninth seed hosts the 10th seed, with the loser eliminated. The loser of the first game hosts the winner of the second game, with the winner of that game inking the final spot in the proper playoffs.
In other words, if the Warriors stay in the 10th spot, they’ll have to win two road games. If they advance to the ninth spot, they’ll have to win a home game and then a road game. And if they climb to the eighth spot, they’ll face a road game and, if they don’t win, will get a second shot at home.
So here’s how things stand for the Warriors. They’re 44-35, and here are their final three games: Thursday at the Portland Trail Blazers, Friday at home against the Pelicans, and Sunday at home against the Utah Jazz.
The Lakers, in the ninth spot, are 45-35, a half-game ahead of the Dubs. They end the season with a pair of road games: Friday at the Memphis Grizzlies, and Sunday at the Pelicans. Because the Warriors own the tiebreaker thanks to Tuesday’s win, they will leapfrog the Lakers if the teams end the year with the same record.
So, if the Lakers go 2-0 to end the year, the Warriors need to go 3-0 to get past them; if the Lakers go 1-1 in their final games, the Warriors need to go 2-1; and if the Lakers lose their last two games, then the Dubs need to go 1-2. The exciting thing here is that the Warriors control their destiny; even though they’re behind the Lakers in the standings, the Warriors will move past LA if they handle business.
It will be quite a bit harder to get into the eighth spot, which would be a huge win for the Warriors. But thanks to OKC’s comeback win, it’s still very much on the table. The Kings are 45-34, a full game ahead of the Dubs ... but critically, Sacramento owns the tiebreaker. That means the Warriors need to finish ahead of their fellow Northern California foes; finishing with the same record would give the nod to the Kings.
The Kings end the season with three home games: Thursday against the Pelicans, Friday against the Suns, and Sunday against the Blazers. If the Kings win two or three of those games, the Warriors will finish behind them. But if Sacramento goes just 1-2, the Warriors would leap over the Kings with a perfect end to the season. And if the Kings go winless in their final contests, the Warriors will pass them by going 2-1. Sacramento hasn’t been playing great basketball lately, as they’re 3-5 in their last eight games ... so the door is open, though unlike with the Lakers, the Warriors need some help to get past the Kings.
The Warriors could also sneak past the Suns, amazingly enough. Phoenix is 46-33, a full two games ahead of the Dubs, and own the tiebreaker. They would need to lose their final three games, with the Warriors going undefeated in theirs for Golden State to jump over them. That’s pretty unlikely, but the Suns — who had a fairly embarrassing home loss to the LA Clippers on Tuesday — have a brutal remaining schedule, with three tough road games against teams with a lot to play for: tonight against the Clippers, Friday against the Kings, and Sunday against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Regardless of the standings, the most important thing for the Warriors is that right now they’re playing the best basketball of the Play-In teams. But climbing the standings a little bit sure would make life a little easier. And this time of year, slightly bigger margins for error are about all you can ask for.
